Semiconductor Memory Market Update

Market Overview

The semiconductor memory market remains in an AI-driven upcycle, with tight supply and elevated pricing across DRAM and NAND.

However, early signs of price stabilisation are emerging, although a potential Samsung strike introduces fresh near-term supply risk.

Key Market Developments 

Potential supply disruption – Samsung labour dispute

• Samsung faces a possible 18-day strike (21 May – 7 June)
• Estimated impact: 3% of global memory output is at risk
• Even limited disruption could tighten supply further and drive short-term price volatility, particularly for server DRAM and DDR5

Pricing remains elevated, but price increases are slowing

• DRAM contract pricing up >50% QoQ
• NAND contract pricing up >60% QoQ
• However, spot pricing is softening:
  • DDR5 spot – Slightly down month on month
• General price trend – prices remain historically high, but rate of increase is slowing
• No fundamental market downturn is expected

AI demand continues to dominate supply dynamics

• High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) capacity is largely sold out through 2026.
• Hyperscalers are securing supply via long-term agreements, limiting spot availability.
• Up to 25% of DRAM capacity is being redirected to HBM, reducing availability of standard memory.
• The market continues with a structural shift, where AI demand is permanently reshaping supply allocation. This has been the case for the last 9 months, but the expected slowdown / corrections recently forecast are showing no signs of kicking in, and AI infrastructure continues to be prioritised by the big memory manufacturers, at the expense of consumer memory availability.

Supply remains constrained

• DRAM remains allocation-driven across DDR3/4/5. Look to tier 2 manufacturers to bridge supply gaps – the big players are chasing Hyperscaler profits
• Where possible move to DDR5, which continues to have by far the largest capacity
• Lead times for enterprise memory remain extended (up to 40+ weeks)
• New capacity additions are not expected to ease supply in the short term
• Availability remains very tight. Planning and forward visibility remain critical for supply continuity

Demand divergence emerging across markets

• Strong demand: AI servers, HBM, enterprise SSD
• Softening demand: consumer / PC / mobile (due to high pricing and customers electing not to invest in new hardware at the current price point)
• Despite this, non-AI segments are facing increasing allocation pressure as capacity is re-allocated to HMB (High Bandwidth Memory) for AI Hyperscaler infrastructures.

Outlook (Next 3–6 Months)

• Pricing: Likely to remain elevated, with slower upward momentum*
• Supply: Continued constraints; high allocation environment persists

*Risk factors:

• Samsung strike outcome
• Further capacity shifts toward HBM are a possibility

Recommendations for Customers Remain unchanged

• Secure supply early (forecast visibility strongly advised)
• Avoid reliance on spot purchasing where possible
• Review exposure to legacy DRAM (DDR3/DDR4) – Shift to DDR5 if you can
• Plan for continued pricing volatility through 2026